Joe Biden presidential run: What are the odds of the Democrat winning? How politics 2020 might be shaping up to a fruitless affair for voters.
There was a time when running for political office almost seemed to necessitate being dull. Having unsavory connections, skeletons in your closet or regrettable incidents in your private life could be terminal to the career of an aspiring politician.
Any incident that could paint you as being a person of questionable character could be seized upon, and used by your opponents in political advertising. Because of this, parties tended to rally around candidates who had led dull and blameless lives. They weren’t always the most exciting people, but they could at least be relied upon not to prove an embarrassment at a later date, after campaign money had already been spent.
The Trump campaign changed all that. After the election of Donald Trump as President, it became clear that you could be accused of soliciting prostitutes, groping women, fraternizing with Russians, and all manner of financial misdemeanors, and the electorate wouldn’t mind so long as they found you charismatic and compelling.
Donald Trump a breath of fresh air: So is that what is lacking in American politics?
For all of his flaws, Trump was welcomed in some circles as being a breath of fresh air. His appeal was precisely that he didn’t look or sound like most politicians – he was human and flawed. As we approach the start of campaigning season for the 2020 electoral campaigns, it would seem that Democrats should start hoping that the same tolerance of undesirable characteristics will be extended to Joe Biden. It seems inevitable that he’s the man who’ll be picked to run against Trump – and he’s not a man who likes to say sorry when he’s done wrong.
All week, Biden has been battling back against the accusation that in the past, he’s willingly worked with people who were openly racist, and he’s enjoyed doing it. He acknowledges that he knew about their views when he worked with them, and he doesn’t feel that he should make any apology for doing so.
When pushed on the matter, his strategy has been to double down and insist that he didn’t have to agree with them in order to work with them efficiently. While that may be true, there are some who feel that he should still apologize for standing shoulder to shoulder with known white supremacists like Jim Eastland, and his refusal to do so isn’t sitting well.
Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are chief among Biden’s detractors – which is to be expected. In turn, Biden is accusing them of political opportunism. The whole spectacle of the Democrats selecting a candidate to run against Trump is now – as the Republican campaign did four years ago – threatening to turn into a battle of who said what, or who the worst candidate is, rather than an open platform to identify the best candidate with the most sensible policies.
Joe Biden presidential run: Can he explain himself out of a box? (don’t bet on it…).
It isn’t the first time in his brief campaign that Biden has found himself trying to explain questionable conduct; the press had only recently moved on from his bizarre behavior towards Lucy Flores, including smelling her hair when not invited to do so. To the casual observer, Biden now comes across as being part of the ‘out of touch’ generation, who can’t understand why the young no longer consider it acceptable to use racially-charged language, or ogle women. To put it another way, he has the demeanor of everybody’s embarrassing grandfather at a wedding.
The issue of age is an important one. When America next goes to the polls, it’s likely that voters will be asked to choose between a 77-year-old Joe Biden, and a 74-year-old Donald Trump. America is once again being told that its best choices for leader are people far beyond retirement age. The young are, for the second election in a row, not represented on the ballot. For voters under 30, Biden and Trump aren’t just far removed from their generation; they’re far removed from their parents’ generation. Accusations of both candidates being out of touch will not only be inevitable; they’ll be merited.
Even if Biden were to miss out on the nomination, the next-closest candidate in terms of current betting odds is Elizabeth Warren, who will be 70. After that, it’s Bernie Sanders, who will be 78. Trump is struggling with poll ratings and just about every other metric that could tell us about his likelihood to win, but if Biden is determined to dig his heels in and refuse to modernize, anything could happen.
Podium placements revealed for first Democratic debate pic.twitter.com/OQ90iTWNLn
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) June 19, 2019
Democratic debate preview:
“You’re a racist.”
“No, YOU’RE the racist.”
“Am not!”
“Are too!”
“Misogynist.”
“Whatever, transphobe.”— jon gabriel (@exjon) June 20, 2019
Joe Biden presidential run: We might as well be off to the Casinos!
Predicting the outcome at that stage becomes less about intelligent betting and more about outright gambling. Working out the odds becomes a fruitless task. You might as well make a mobile slots casino game out of all the candidates, spin the reels, and see whose face shows up on the symbols when everything has settled. Even then, the jackpot prize might not be what you wanted. Any good Mobile Slots that has a jackpot that makes you excited to play, and determined to persevere.
The jackpot prize for voters in 2020 seems destined to be an elderly President who’ll make decisions about a future that they’ll never be part of. The young will, for another five years, be subject to the whims of the old
For Biden to ride out the current storm, he needs to break with whichever advisers are telling him that apologizing would be a sign of weakness, and say the word ‘sorry.’ Everybody knows that the Democrats do better with black voters than Republicans do, but those voters are unlikely to be enthused about voting for somebody who can’t see any problem with the fact that he gladly did business with people who called for racial segregation.
These issues should be part of the distant and shameful past for American politics, but instead, they’re once again front and center. Perhaps that’s to be expected when the politicians who put themselves forward to lead are part and parcel of that distant and shameful past.
Although labels should never be placed on large groups of people, there are two principles that most Democratic voters – or potential Democratic voters – tend to believe in. Those are gender equality, and racial equality. Right now, it’s far too easy to describe Joe Biden as an old man who creeps on women and shakes hands with racists. If he wins the nomination, and he can’t change that image, it’s likely Trump will win again.
We’re bringing together supporters across the country for the first Democratic debate! Head to https://t.co/r0RlGWdvLe to RSVP to a watch party in your community. pic.twitter.com/D86yUQXU7y
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 23, 2019
